In a 2017 RethinkX report, it says that by 2030, within twenty years of regulatory approval of autonomous electric vehicle in United States, 95% of the distance traveled on road, would be covered using on demand AV, with fleet owned by service provider not by individual owners!
The disruption predicted by RethinkX model, would be driven by economics. Transport as a service (TaaS) will be cheaper than maintaining and using a vehicle by individual. Demand in the transport sector would reduce drastically, owing to a reduction in individual ownership of vehicles, and improved services. This will cause a huge disruption not only in the transport business but in the oil business across the total value chain!
But the savings from transport cost of average household, would increase the consumer power and business growth in other areas would result. RethinkX also calculates that disruption once happens in US, it’s spread would be global and very quick.
The report is based on a dynamic modelling and consider several constraints in the matter of policy, economy, GDP, innovation in the technology of Electric vehicle over internal combustion engine ICE and even on behavioral pattern as car owners switch to service user! Hence, the accuracy of the report lies in various factors, which can vary and change the scenario. But overall, this disruption coming our way in near future is highly probable, with vehicle service providers, already disrupting a small percentage of vehicle ownership pattern, and technologies for cheaper EV, storage etc. knocking on the door.
A very interesting and well analysed detail report by RethinkX on what they term as disruption of the century.
To read more on this go to https://www.rethinkx.com/executive-summary/
Source: RethinkX website