International Energy Agency (IEA) released its Energy Technologies Perspectives 2020 yesterday. In the media presentation, several key issues and points were discussed in fair details by the top brasses of the organization. The focus was on clean energy technologies, the goal being net zero emission by 2050.

This write up intends to present a brief on major areas of focus in this report, based on the presentation at the event.

As discussed in the course of presentation by IEA experts, transitioning the energy system to a net zero emission by 2050, poses some major challenges, which cannot be addressed by technology development alone. In fact, developing these technologies to maturity, to become viable commercially, for big industries and applications, require policy intervention to a great extent.

Interestingly, while talking about achievements in renewable capacity additions, in several countries, in terms of reduced cost of solar PV etc. IEA terms the clean energy pledges and goals of various governments and companies, as ambitious.

This leads everyone to ask that one vital question, “We are doing it alright, but are we doing enough?”.

Three critical areas have been identified, in this report, where broader technology efforts are required for transitioning energy system to net zero emission by 2050. (IEA 2020B)

I. Existing Assets in Power generation and industries

Around 40% of energy related emission comes from power sector, which clearly indicates that tackling emission of power industry alone would not be enough. But it’s a major contributor alright. Existing energy infrastructure of power generation and other heavy industries, is too great to be ignored, and these assets would remain live for many more years now. Thus, to achieve a net zero, emission from these assets need to be tackled. (IEA 2020A)

Power Sector – Experts estimate average life of a coal fired power plant to be around fifty years (baseline considers the factors like changed operation, retrofitting with low carbon technologies etc.). 80% of coal fired capacity in Asia was built in past twenty years.These assets still have an average life of another twenty to twenty-five years. These infrastructures would continue to emit around 750 Gigatons of Carbon, for another few decades, if no action is taken.

Iron and Steel – They contribute to around 7% of energy related emission. Average life is around 40 years whereas average age of existing assets is around 12 years.

Cement industries – They contribute to around 7% of energy related emission. Average life is around 40 years whereas average age of existing assets is much less, below 13 years. China is home to almost half of global cement production.

Chemical industries – They contribute to around 4% of energy related emission. Average life is again much lower, and the existing asset infrastructure would be around for many more years. Majority of these assets are in Asia and Middle East.

Fig 1. Emission from existing infrastructure of various industries (IEA 2020A)

The time of refurbishment of these assets can be viewed as an opportunity for us. When these assets go for refurbishment, we should be ready with technologies, to make them cleaner.

According to IEA, effort should be such that this opportunity of refurbishing the assets to low carbon, is not missed.

If this opportunity is missed, these assets would continue to go for another investment cycle, without being low carbon, which would impose challenges to clean energy transition.

On the issue of reducing energy emission, Power sector remains at the center of focus. Power sector contributes to around 40% of emission and its assets has a long life. Presently, with increased renewable, decarbonization of power generation, is on track. IEA is hopeful that power generation would be the first industry, to be fully decarbonized.

Unfortunately, that is not enough to achieve net zero emission, as energy related emission comes from a broad variety of industries. Transport and building related industries account for more than 55% of CO2 emission in the world today. Hence, success of renewable power and scaling up electric vehicles alone, would not take us towards net zero emission.

II. Clean Energy Innovation

As for clean energy technologies, the perspective says that a whole range of technologies is required, for effective emission reduction. In this report, 800 technologies have been discussed. Every technology requires attention, “we cannot afford to give up on any of these technologies, if we want to achieve net zero emission fast.”

However, major technologies, which require immediate attention are CCS (Carbon capture and Storage), clean Hydrogen and Bio energy.

The report talks about accelerating the clean energy innovation. A right fuel mix for each sub sector of industries, is required, for which clean energy innovation needs to be accelerated.

But, most of these technologies are either at prototype or at demonstration levels. In their sustainable development scenario, IEA projects that one third of emission reduction comes from technologies which are still at prototype stage or demonstration stage, i.e. are not commercially available.

Fig 2. Technology maturity for net zero emission by 2050 (IEA 2020B)

In faster innovation scenario, half of emission reduction comes from such commercially unavailable technologies.

The success stories of some of these technologies which are projected in energy news or through other medium, are mostly small-scale applications. These technologies need more innovations to be suitable for applications like in heavy industries or long-distance transports etc.

III. Infrastructure that enables rapid technology deployment

To reach net zero emission by 2050, it will require major roll out of clean energy technologies and clean energy infrastructure.

Two and half times more electricity production would be required, relative to today’s production to electrify cars, trucks, homes, industry in order to replace high emission fuels, to reach net zero emission by 2050.

This would require not only generation capacity addition but infrastructure related to transmission distribution also. The additional capacity requires to be low carbon, i.e. more renewable installation.

But this is not an easy task either. There was a capacity addition of slightly less than 200 GW last year. The largest solar PV installation in the world is more than 2 GW, in India.

To achieve the estimated electricity requirement, four times the capacity added last year, needs to be added every year from now till 2050. In another word, installation equivalent to the largest solar PV, needs to be added in every two days, till 2050.

The challenge is as big in case of hydrogen technology. The most important technology in Hydrogen is production of clean hydrogen using Electrolyser technology. At present, the net Electrolyser capacity is 200 MW, the largest plant of 10 MW being in Japan. To achieve the net zero emission, this size project needs to come up every hour from now, till 2050. The projects in pipeline is 2.8 GW, expected in three years of time which is a good progress.

For CCS, the target is more stringent, as the progress of this technology has been slower. But it has been established that CCS is one technology that required to be used to decarbonize many existing industries, to capture carbon and produce synthetic fuels. The most extensive CCS project till now is Northern lights project in Norway. For a net zero emission, requirement is equivalent to adding one northern lights project, every week, till 2050!

The above requirements can be moderated through consumer behavior, but significant roll out of clean energy technologies, cannot be eliminated, at any point of time.

Another main source of clean energy Bio energy has most versatile application over the variety of industries, but IEA states that it is yet to be sustainable. The resource chain for bio energy is not yet established.

 

Government and policy makers need to play a major decisive role in making things happen. They would be at the front and center more due the scale of the challenge. Market will be vital in mobilizing capital and catalyzing innovation, but they cannot deliver net zero emission on their own.

It’s the government that will be the key performer in the course of achieving net zero emission. The report curves out five core areas, which require addressing through policy intervention. These are,

  • Addressing the emissions from existing assets
  • Strengthening the markets for technologies at an early stage of adoption
  • Develop and upgrade infrastructure that enables technology deployment
  • Support for R D & D (Research, Development & Demonstration)
  • Expand International technology collaboration

Conclusion:

The major technologies that are highlighted in the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, are clean energy technologies, which have been mostly around for sometime now. The most important part of this report is that it is in a way oriented around climate concern.

As is clear from the discussion that these technologies still need development and more innovation. Transitioning of energy system towards net zero emission, as projected, by 2050, largely depend on this.

We cannot just do away with the existing infrastructures, which still have a long life in most cases. Decarbonizing some these, especially in heavy industry sector, largely depend on a cost and resource intensive technology like CCS, which has not seen much technological development over so many years now, to be suitable for a universal use. IEA clearly states that CCS is the only option to have a breach between huge fossil fuel assets and climate change.

Another major area of concern in this projection, is assuming policy and regulatory intervention, and government’s initiative, would work in same manner as renewable technologies like solar PV and offshore wind, to accelerate the technology development and to bring the market. This remains a gray area, especially since whole world is presently facing grave economic crisis, while dealing with the pandemic situation. But it is on government of countries now, to bring clean energy agenda on a fast track,  and work in a collaborative manner, to bring about the required technology development and faster innovation.

Nevertheless, clean energy technologies are available, and can make achieving of net zero emission in time possible, if innovation and development is accelerated. At the wake of this pandemic situation, climate concern is at a peak now. The energy perspectives 2020 would guide the policymaker’s action on this call.

References:

IEA (2020a)

IEA Energy Technology Perspectives: Report

[Online] https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-technology-perspectives (Viewed on 10.09.2020)

IEA (2020b)

IEA Energy Technology Perspectives: Media event

[Online]https://www.iea.org/events/energy-technology-perspectives-2020-2?utm_content=buffer339ba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (Accessed on 10.09.2020)

 

By Sarbani Ray